{"id":20469,"date":"2026-10-20T10:33:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T14:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/?post_type=article&#038;p=20469"},"modified":"2026-10-20T10:33:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T14:33:26","slug":"les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/","title":{"rendered":"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat du secteur pour les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. En ao\u00fbt, Wealthsimple a publi\u00e9 un livre blanc dans lequel il recommande un acc\u00e8s plus large aux contrats li\u00e9s \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements. Plus r\u00e9cemment encore, VerdX a d\u00e9pos\u00e9 une demande pour devenir courtier en placement \u00e0 ex\u00e9cution d\u2019ordres seulement (OEO), ne n\u00e9gociant que des contrats sur les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction. Les organismes de r\u00e9glementation devraient examiner cet int\u00e9r\u00eat avec soin, mais celui-ci ne devrait pas d\u00e9terminer l\u2019issue du dossier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le v\u00e9ritable enjeu n\u2019est pas de savoir si les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction sont innovants, si certains investisseurs am\u00e9ricains les adoptent ou quels produits ont les faveurs des organismes de r\u00e9glementation. Il s\u2019agit plut\u00f4t de d\u00e9terminer si leur offre par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire de canaux de placement r\u00e9glement\u00e9s est compatible avec la protection des investisseurs, ainsi qu&#8217;avec des march\u00e9s financiers \u00e9quitables, efficaces et dynamiques, et si les risques peuvent \u00eatre g\u00e9r\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re ad\u00e9quate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les partisans de ces produits en soulignent les avantages potentiels, notamment en mati\u00e8re de pr\u00e9vision et de couverture. Les organismes de r\u00e9glementation devraient peser ces avantages par rapport aux risques pour les investisseurs particuliers, l\u2019int\u00e9grit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 et le cadre r\u00e9glementaire. Les contrats li\u00e9s \u00e0 pratiquement n\u2019importe quel \u00e9v\u00e9nement du monde r\u00e9el pourraient n\u00e9cessiter la mise en place de nouveaux syst\u00e8mes co\u00fbteux pour surveiller les transactions, d\u00e9tecter les manipulations et lutter contre l\u2019utilisation abusive d&#8217;informations non publiques. Les organismes de r\u00e9glementation doivent d\u00e9terminer si une surveillance efficace est r\u00e9alisable, qui la financerait, et si les exigences r\u00e9glementaires seraient proportionnelles au r\u00f4le de ces produits sur le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour les investisseurs particuliers, il ne s&#8217;agit pas d&#8217;un d\u00e9bat abstrait sur la classification r\u00e9glementaire. Les produits qui proposent des paris sous couvert d&#8217;investissement pourraient encourager la sp\u00e9culation \u00e0 court terme par l\u2019entremise des m\u00eames plateformes que celles utilis\u00e9es par les Canadiens pour \u00e9pargner en vue de la retraite, des \u00e9tudes et d&#8217;autres objectifs \u00e0 long terme. Les cons\u00e9quences pourraient \u00eatre particuli\u00e8rement graves pour les investisseurs dont l\u2019\u00e9pargne est limit\u00e9e ou qui ont une faible capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 absorber les pertes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prudence n\u2019est pas synonyme de r\u00e9sistance \u00e0 l\u2019innovation. Proposer des produits s\u2019apparentant \u00e0 des jeux de hasard par l\u2019entremise des plateformes d\u2019investissement grand public pourrait exposer davantage de Canadiens \u00e0 des pertes qu\u2019ils ne sont pas pr\u00eats \u00e0 assumer. Cela soul\u00e8ve \u00e9galement une question politique plus large : le fait de rendre la sp\u00e9culation sur des \u00e9v\u00e9nements \u00e0 court terme plus accessible par le biais de canaux d\u2019investissement pourrait-il d\u00e9tourner des \u00e9pargnes d\u00e9j\u00e0 limit\u00e9es d\u2019investissements qui financent les entreprises canadiennes, soutiennent l\u2019emploi et contribuent \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/2026_09_23_WSResponsePaper.ver0-FR1.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Le livre blanc de FAIR Canada<\/a>, intitul\u00e9 Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction au Canada : D\u00e9finir la ligne r\u00e9glementaire, souligne que la forme juridique n\u2019est que le point de d\u00e9part de la discussion. Les organismes de r\u00e9glementation doivent \u00e9galement examiner le fonctionnement concret de ces produits, les risques qu\u2019ils engendrent et l&#8217;efficacit\u00e9 du cadre r\u00e9glementaire des valeurs mobili\u00e8res pour y rem\u00e9dier. Tant que ces questions n\u2019auront pas trouv\u00e9 de r\u00e9ponse, il serait pr\u00e9matur\u00e9 d\u2019\u00e9largir l\u2019acc\u00e8s des particuliers \u00e0 ces produits par le biais de canaux d\u2019investissement r\u00e9glement\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>JP Bureaud, PDG, FAIR Canada<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat du secteur pour les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. En ao\u00fbt, Wealthsimple a publi\u00e9 un livre blanc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":20466,"template":"","tags":[],"articles_category":[803],"articles_date":[836],"class_list":["post-20469","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","articles_category-intro-pdg","articles_date-oct-2026"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.2 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt? - FAIR Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat du secteur pour les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. En ao\u00fbt, Wealthsimple a publi\u00e9 un livre blanc\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FAIR Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/FAIR-Canada\/138310399536931\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-20T14:33:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@FAIRCanada\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/\",\"name\":\"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt? - FAIR Canada\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-20T14:33:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-20T14:33:26+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png\",\"width\":600,\"height\":300},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/\",\"name\":\"FAIR Canada\",\"description\":\"FAIR Canada is a national, non-profit organization dedicated to putting investors first.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#organization\",\"name\":\"FairCanada\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/faircanada-logo.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/faircanada-logo.svg\",\"width\":307,\"height\":52,\"caption\":\"FairCanada\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/FAIR-Canada\/138310399536931\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/FAIRCanada\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt? - FAIR Canada","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt?","og_description":"L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat du secteur pour les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. En ao\u00fbt, Wealthsimple a publi\u00e9 un livre blanc","og_url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/","og_site_name":"FAIR Canada","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/FAIR-Canada\/138310399536931","article_modified_time":"2026-10-20T14:33:26+00:00","og_image":[{"width":600,"height":300,"url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@FAIRCanada","twitter_misc":{"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/","url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/","name":"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt? - FAIR Canada","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png","datePublished":"2026-10-20T14:33:25+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-20T14:33:26+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Hero-Size-13.png","width":600,"height":300},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/article\/les-marches-de-prediction-a-qui-profite-cette-innovation-et-quel-en-est-le-cout\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Accueil","item":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : \u00e0 qui profite cette innovation et quel en est le co\u00fbt?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#website","url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/","name":"FAIR Canada","description":"FAIR Canada is a national, non-profit organization dedicated to putting investors first.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#organization","name":"FairCanada","url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/faircanada-logo.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/faircanada-logo.svg","width":307,"height":52,"caption":"FairCanada"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/FAIR-Canada\/138310399536931","https:\/\/x.com\/FAIRCanada"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/20469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20469"},{"taxonomy":"articles_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articles_category?post=20469"},{"taxonomy":"articles_date","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/faircanada.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/articles_date?post=20469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}